Notably, batteries account for about 50% of the cost of EVs, making local battery manufacturing and sourcing a key factor in reducing costs and improving accessibility for consumers.
Goldman Sachs' researchers further predict that average battery prices could fall as far as $80/kWh by 2026, which would equate to a drop of almost 50 per cent from 2023 levels.
Will EV battery prices drop by 50 percent by 2026?
Global electric vehicle (EV) battery prices could drop by almost another 50 per cent by 2026, according to Goldman Sachs Research, bringing with it the potential of price parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.
Our researchers forecast that average battery prices could fall towards $80/kWh by 2026, amounting to a drop of almost 50% from 2023, a level at which battery electric vehicles would achieve ownership cost parity with gasoline-fueled cars in the US on an unsubsidized basis. Source: Company data, Wood Mackenzie, SNE Research, Goldman Sachs Research
By 2030, that number could drop to $60 per kWh. For context, a 100 kWh battery for a large SUV could cost as little as $6,000, while an 800 kWh battery for a semi-truck might run under $50,000. Lower costs, combined with breakthroughs in energy density and smarter production methods, are driving EV adoption to levels once thought impossible.
Exhibit 1 highlights two notable trends. First, as material costs decrease, conversion costs become more significant. Conversion costs account for about 20% of production costs for nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) batteries, versus approximately 30% for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.
Battery is a complex interplay of multiple components. Battery costs are determined by the total costs of its various components, which are in turn driven by the costs of different raw materials and processing margins at each link of the supply chain.